Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

To Make Poverty a History

If there is only one magic bullet to put poverty into museum, Jeffrey Sach will definitely declare foreign aid investment as the sole remedy. He makes a bold statement in his book, "The End of Poverty", that impoverished countries are engulfed in the fire of extreme poverty; that the poor who inherit a series of misfortunes such as poor geography, infrastructure, health care, and human capital, are incapable of breaking themselves out from this vicious trap.

He later draws an analogy of a human body to explain the complexity of each society and that economist should be attuned to all possible symptoms that a country has, just like a doctor approaches his patient: he analyzes the diseases, run some tests and then prescribes appropriate treatment. Thus, there is no one-size-fits-all remedy in economy, each economist should be well-versed to diagnose a country and come up with different treatments. This is what he calls "clinical economics".

In this framework, financial foreign aid or what Sach often refers to Official Development Assistance (ODA), fits nicely. He argues that rich countries hold the destiny of poor countries and that the rich is responsible to set the poor development effort in motion. On other words, the U.S. and other developed countries should assist and lift the poor until they are able to grab the first rung of the development ladder. How? This is where things get arduous, but let me simplify.

A household will always have three streams of expense (1) Consumption (2) Tax Payments and (3) Savings. In the case of extreme poverty, the household income is absorbed completely to satisfy basic consumption, leaving zero dollar for tax and let alone savings. Without tax, the government could not make necessary public investment. As a result of zero tax and saving, capital per person suffers tremendously. Add to that picture is the problem of population growth and depreciation which both bring down the level of capital per person. Follow the cycle and a freshman in economy would be able to predict that the economy is contracting, leaving households with only enough means to satisfy basic needs and ensnaring the country, again, in this vicious cycle of poverty trap.

OAD (or financial aid) is a booster. It jumpstarts the economy by feeding into three different channels, (1) humanitarian aid to meet households' basic needs which hopefully then increase saving, (2) budget to finance public investment, (3) microfinance program for private business. All of which are directed to increase the level of capital per person. The corollary once these investments are in motion are that households would be able to rise beyond subsistence, the poverty trap is broken, and the economy is lubricant enough to be self-sustaining.

Having understood this, let's incorporate the "clinical economy" theory to this picture. Each country has its own malady and the amount of investment (OAD) to be injected differ from country to country. Thus, it is imperative to know and locate which specific-capital in the country that require greater attention and investment. In general, there are six crucial capitals (Business, Human, Knowledge, Infrastructure, Natural, and Public Insitutional), and comprehensive effort should be made to address all six. Missing one of these would be imicable as each capital is greatly contingent on another capital; ignoring one destroys the whole equation.

I've been explaining a mouthful and it's time for me to stop. Bottom line is, the glorious dream of ending poverty is attainable. What the world need now is for the affluent countries to start investing in these impoverished countries at least until they get a hold on the first rung of development ladder. That's all to it, just like Sach said, "it is not whether the rich can afford to help the poor, but whether they can afford not to."

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Economic 101 for Dummies

I know the word 'dummies' may raise your eyebrow but let me clarify that I am one of those dummies, or should I say, I am one of those who do not understand what is happening to the economy at this particular point in time. And also let me clarify that if you scratch your head trying to unravel the mysterious thread of the economy, you're not alone. And I really understand the frustration of trying to understand and read articles from Times or even The Economists which full of lingo and in the end, still leaving us clueless. Because of this, I took great effort to fathom this mayhem and initiated to write an entry explaining the crisis in laymen terms. So, for the clueless, enjoy it, but bear with me guys, I am not an expert but I hope this rudimentary explanation would, at the very least, give you the 'Aha'

First, let start with the heart of the problem: sub-prime mortgage. It is a loan that is given to unqualified borrowers, a loan that is not supposed to be given at the first place. When the housing price plummeted, the borrowers were running frantically since their house was not as valuable as before. Overall economy was performing badly as well, hitting the unqualified borrowers' ability to pay their mortgage loan. In consequence, mortgage company suffered from loss.

Second, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were those which were greatly affected by this blow. They were not mortgage companies, but they provided financing for banks who issued mortgage. The initial purpose of these companies was to boost people's confidence in taking loans and buying their own house, giving the impression that borrower's loan were safely backed up by the government,when in fact it was not. National Public Radio (NPR) describes them as a mortgage wholesaler for investment banks.

Again, because of the housing slump and borrower's delinquency, their capital were greatly hurt and the government decided to save them from going down. The reasons: they are the world's largest company in terms of the amount of debt issued. Thus, letting these companies go down will crush the financial economy into pieces. So, there you go, $200billion bailout.

Third, AIG's bailout. The reason why AIG was saved (while Lehman not) is because AIG sells credit-default swaps (CDS). This illustration will hopefully help you to understand. If you buy a bond from company A, you might want to protect your investment by buying CDS from AIG. With this, when company A fails to meet its obligation, AIG guarantees that you will get your money back. Put it simply, CDS is your insurance.

To make sure the system works, AIG has to post collateral and the collateral depends on rating given by rating agencies like Moody's and Standard & Poor's. What happened was the agencies sharply downgraded AIG's rating. This means AIG has to post significant amount of collateral - $250 billion in a night - which obviously AIG did not has.

The government realizes that letting AIG goes down means letting all the CDS holders (who think that their fund is protected) go down as well. The ripple effect is unthinkable; other firms will also fail which will lead to more firm failing which will then lead to a financial catastrophe. All hells break loose. Thus, there you go, $85 billion bailout.

Fourth and last point, if all the venerable investment companies were failing, is there any company big enough to withstand the blow? Apparently not, that is why the government was proposing a $700 billion bailout plan, which btw, was rejected by the House. So, what's the next plan? I don't know but the officials are, I believe, working around the clock to solve this problem.

But for sure, this is a historic moment guys, let's try to turn our attention to the news. I hope I have set some basic foundations to help you guys understand the issue further. For those of you who know better, please please please correct me for any wrong statement. I am indeed still learning about the issue and any comment / suggestion would be highly appreciated and anticipated. Lastly, I should give Cheap (aka Stephanus Saputra) the credit for answering my questions, and also to Time Magazine (The Price of Greed by Serwer and Sloan) and NPR's Talk of the Nation for their excellent coverage on the topic.